🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.